Armageddon is approaching. "It's not a collapse anymore, it's a war."
- In terms of birth rates, the situation hasn't been this bad since the end of World War II. The Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported that the fertility rate in Poland is a mere 1.12 children per woman. Poland ranks far behind Europe in this regard.
- Local government officials want to have full decision-making power in shaping the network of schools and kindergartens in order to start adapting to the situation now and avoid revolutions in the future.
- - This is not a collapse, but a war, a war against depopulation that has attacked us, so we must start taking action to prepare for the demographic armageddon that awaits us in the education system - comments the mayor of Sosnowiec, Arkadiusz Chęciński.
- Local government officials are warning about empty schools. They are calling on the government to change the regulations.
According to data from the Central Statistical Office, at the end of 2024 the population of Poland was 37.49 million, which is approximately 157,000 less than at the end of 2023.
In terms of birth rates, it hasn't been this bad since the end of World War II . The Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported that the fertility rate in Poland is a mere 1.12 children per woman. Poland ranks far behind Europe in this regard.
The systematically decreasing number of people of pre-working age (0-17 years) also continues. As of December 31, 2024, there were 6.8 million of them, which is 100,000 fewer than at the end of 2023. Compared to 1990, this number is lower by approximately PLN 4.3 million, and by over PLN 2.5 million compared to 2000 .
Some schools and kindergartens will have to close. Local government officials are appealing to the government.The ongoing demographic crisis is increasingly starting to affect local governments, as Money.pl points out, citing comments from the mayor of Sosnowiec, Arkadiusz Chęciński, and the mayor of Wrocław, Jacek Sutryk.
Local government officials are warning that they face difficult decisions related to the closure of schools and preschools. Therefore, they are demanding that the government, among other things, abolish the requirement to obtain a binding opinion from the education superintendent for changes to the school network. Under current regulations, such a positive opinion is required to close a school or preschool.
Until recently, up to 2,500 babies were born in Sosnowiec each year. And now?The mayor of Sosnowiec points out that by 2030, approximately 19% of the child population will disappear , and that in the city he governs, only about 1,000 children have been born annually since the pandemic (previously 2,000-2,500).
"We're already seeing problems in the first year groups in preschool. In two or three years, this demographic decline will reach schools, " says Arkadiusz Chęciński, quoted by Money.pl. "This isn't a collapse, but a war, a war against depopulation that has attacked us. That's why we need to take action to prepare for the impending demographic Armageddon in the education system."
They want to have full decision-making power in shaping the school network so as not to have to make a revolution in the future.The mayor of Sosnowiec assures that local government officials do not want to close schools en masse, but they must have full decision-making power on this matter in their area.
"However, it's difficult for us to do this with our hands tied. If we start acting today, we'll be able to make decisions that will have the least impact on residents. If we don't start today, we'll be embarking on a revolution in a year, two, or three, " he points out.
He adds that we should now consider how to utilize empty spaces in schools.
"Right now, a building housing a school can't even house a nursery. It has to have a separate entrance, even a separate kitchen. It's time to change the regulations, because otherwise many municipalities will be forced to simply close schools if there aren't enough students, " says Chęciński.
Wrocław, as a large metropolitan area and the capital of the voivodeship, is less affected by the crisis. But it is already noticeable in some schools.The problem is already noticeable in small and medium-sized municipalities, where there is a shortage of children in kindergartens.
"We're calling on the government to make a change because, as those responsible for shaping the school and preschool network, we want to have freedom in this regard, and we don't have that right now," Jacek Sutryk, Mayor of Wrocław and President of the Association of Polish Cities, told Money.pl. "Our goal is to adapt these facilities to the needs of residents—both demographically and in terms of other needs. They don't have to be just preschools or schools. In the future, they could also be meeting places, grassroots sports centers, or cultural centers."
He admits that Wrocław, as a large metropolitan area, is in a better situation because it is here – the capital of the Lower Silesian Voivodeship – that many residents of smaller towns and municipalities move.
"We still have a large number of migrants, mainly from Ukraine, but the demographic crisis may eventually affect large cities as well. There are neighborhoods like Jagodno, where the number of students remains consistently high, but there are schools, for example in Śródmieście, where it's already clear that there will be fewer first-grade students," he points out.
